FXUS61 KAKQ 250117                                              2009329 0117
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
817 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LLVL CAD/WDG RMNS FIRMLY IN PLC...AND MDL TSXNS/SNDGS SUGG IT RMNS
SO THROUGH THE NGT. LCL RDR CONTG TO SHOW VRY LGT PCPN ACRS
PORTIONS OF ERN/SE VA/CSTL NE NC ATTM. WL HV LIGHT RAIN/DZ ERN
SXNS THROUGH THE NGT...PTCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. LO TEMPS IN THE 40S TO
L50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF FA TO BE SANDWICHED BTWN LO PRES MVG THROUGH LAKES
RGN...AND DVLPG SFC LO PRES OFF THE SE CST WHICH TRACKS NE THROUGH
FRI. MDL TSXNS SUGG GRDL EROSION OF LLVL CLDNS ON WED (AFTN)...ESP
INLAND. SFC-BLYR WNDS RMN GENLY AOB 10 KT...AND VRBL THROUGH WED
NGT...SO ANY CLRG SHOULD TAKE PLC SLOLY. BY THU...UPR LVL SYS CRSS
THE MTNS...AND NEXT SFC FNT ENTERS THE FA FM THE W (BY LT AFTN/EVE
HRS). DP LYRD CAA AS TROUGH SFC-ALOFT CRSS THE THE RGN BY FRI
AFTN. XPCTG MNLY PCLDY WX THU AND FRI...ANY RA FM CSTL SYS SHOULD
RMN LRGLY NR/OFFSHR...WHL THERE COULD BE SCTD SHRAS ELSW AS TROUGH
CRSS THE RGN.
HI TEMPS WED IN THE 50S-L60S. HI TEMPS THU IN THE U50S-M60S...THEN
IN THE L/M50S FRI. LOWS MNLY IN THE 40S WED NGT...THEN U30S TO
M40S THU NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS-ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AS PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRI
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES/ERN QUEBEC SAT AND SUN. ENSUING W/NW (DOWNSLOPE) FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF APPRCHNG RIDGE AXIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
(PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SUN AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES
MORE S/SW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGHS GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S
ON SAT AND UPR 50S/LWR 60S SUN.
AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON-TUE)...GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE
INCONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN OVER THE PAST 3-4 RUNS. THEREFORE...
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM (I.E. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS FROM THE WEST). WILL
STILL ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS ON MON...ALONG WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES LATE (MAINLY WRN HALF OF FCST REGION). TEMPS COULD GET
UNSEASONABLY WARM ON MON IF NOT FOR THE INCREASING MSTR...AS LCL
GUIDANCE USING LLVL THICKNESSES SUGGEST AROUND 70/LWR 70S WITH
PTLY CLDY SKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW HAVE OPTED CLOSER TOWARD HPC
GUIDANCE (THOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER)...WHICH TRANSLATES TO
UPR 50S/AROUND 60 N TO MID/PSBLY UPR 60S S.
BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...
EVEN THOUGH (AGAIN) GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFS
WITH THE NEXT LOW/ASSCD COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES AS N TO NE FLOW CONTINUES ACRS THE
RGN. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE MVG NW ACRS
NE NC AND SE VA. EXPECT PCPN TO END BY LATE EVNG WITH IFR CONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME IMPROVEMENT WED AFTN AS
CIGS SHOULD CLIMB TO 1000 FT OR ABOVE WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT
NEAR THE CST. HOWEVER CIGS WL DROP BACK DOWN AFTER SUNSET. NRLY
WNDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED THEN TURN MORE TO THE S AND SW
WED AFTN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR UNTIL A COLD FNT MVS THROUGH THU NIGHT. WNDS
BEHIND THE FNT BECOME W/NW WHICH WL USHER IN DRIER AIR. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS DROPPING DOWN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT
NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS ABOVE 5 FT IN THE COASTAL
ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA FOR THE TWO MOST NRN ZONES AN ADDITIONAL 12 HOURS AS THE SEAS
ARE SLOW TO DECREASE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW STAYING WELL
OFF THE COAST WED AND THU...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHEN
AND TAKING ON AN NEGATIVE TILT BY FRIDAY...CONCERNED THAT THE LOW
MAY END UP CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT COASTAL ZONES.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS IN TH 3 TO 4 FT
RANGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH AS THIS COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...BY THIS WEEKEND...ALL MODELS AS SHOWING A STRONG CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH STRONG NW FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD
TO SCA TO POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/SMF
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...BKH