FXUS61 KAKQ 110212                                              2008285 0213
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1012 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MON...WHILE THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DRYER AIR BEGINNING TO WIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF FA LATE THIS EVE.
XCPTN BEING RIGHT ALONG ALBEMARLE SND WHERE ENUF LL MSTR LINGERS
TO CONT SOME PTCHY DRIZZLE FOR A FEW MORE HRS. OTW...HIGH AND MID
LVL CLDNS CONTS ACROSS FA OVRNITE WITH SOME SLOW CLRG XPCTD ACROSS
XTREME NRN CNTYS AFTR 09Z. ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG IN SBY PER THE USUAL
ASOS READINGS. VARING AMTS OF CLD COVER RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF
TMPS BY SR. LOWS FROM M40S AT SBY TO LWR 60S SERN CSTL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES SFC/ALOFT WL BUILD OVR THE RGN THIS WKND...AND RMN SO
ON MON. DRY WX...TEMPS AT OR SLGTLY ABV NRML EACH DAY (70S
SAT/SUN...UPR 70S/LWR 80S MON)...NR NRML NGTTM LO TEMPS (50S/LWR
60S SAT NGT...40S/50S SUN NGT).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MAINLY DRY SOLN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FAVORED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/ LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. UPPER
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WX THROUGH MID WEEK...WHEN IT
LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY BECOME DISLODGED BY NORTHERN STREAM TROF RIDING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD WITH DRY AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SUN...HIGHS LOOK
LIKE THEY SHOULD RUN 7-10F ABOVE CLIMO NORMS. GRIDS NOW CARRYING MAX
T IN THE UPR 70S/L80S TUE/WED...WITH A FEW MID 80S POSSIBLE INLAND
ACRS SOUTHSIDE VA/NE NC COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER M/U 70S ACRS
EASTERN SHORE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO NR 60.
BY MIDWEEK...A COLD FRNT WILL APPROACH FM THE WEST BY LTR
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH ACRS THE AREA INTO ERLY WED. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THIS A DRY FROPA...SO KEPT POPS 14 OR LESS THRU THIS
PERIOD. HELD OFF NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...AND
INSTALLED SLGT CHC POPS FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE PLENTY GIVEN
CURRENT SETUP.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE JERSEY SHORE AND LOW OFF NRN
FLORIDA BRINGING ENE FLOW (ONSHORE) AT 5 TO 10 KTS AND LOW CIGS TO
SE VA AND NE NC. PRECIP HAS GENERALLY PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND ERN NC. HOWEVER...EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE (WITH
IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS) AT ECG AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS ORF
THROUGH 06Z. IFR CIGS WITH MARINE LAYER TO GENERALLY PERSIST
ACROSS NE NC (INCL ECG) INTO EARLY SATURDAY...CIGS AT ORF EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MVFR (ABOVE 1 KFT)...THOUGH IT WILL BE REMAIN CLOSE.
MARINE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD REACH TO PHF AND BRING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT VFR CIGS FURTHER NORTH (INCL RIC AND SBY).
AFTER 06Z AND THROUGH SUNRISE...CLOUDS TO CLEAR AT LOW/MID LEVELS
AT INLAND AREAS NORTH OF NC/VA BORDER. DESPITE DEWPOINTS ABOUT TEN
DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST...EXPECT MORE FOG WITH IFR
VSBYS AT SBY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT RIC AND PHF.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED (EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORING FOG) UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
ENE WNDS FOR MUCH OF THE WTRS NOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION FM THE N/W THROUGH SAT...THEN REMAINS OVR THE AREA THRU
MON. PRES GRADIENT FROM LOW PRES SPINNING OFF THE SERN COAST AND
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDING IN FROM TO THE N WILL TIGHTEN AS HIGH
CONTS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE RGN. SCA FLAGS REMAIN FLYING OVR
ALL COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE...INCLUDING THE SRN CHES
BAY AND CURRITUCK SND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NE WNDS 15 TO
20 KT PERSISTING THRU THE DAY TOMORROW. WVWATCH SHOWING 5-7FT SEAS
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO SCA
HEADLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-652-654-
     656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...MAM